Tuesday, August 23, 2011

No True Retest

To come so close to an actual retest of the 8/9 low, but not actual do it creates doubt about today's rally. The Qs have clearly completed a flat correction from the 2/18 high, but the pattern in the other indexes was not completed.  This divergence indicates that more corrective action will most likely be seen in September and October.

Assuming today's rally is not completely wiped out tomorrow, the upside target is somewhere between 55 and 56 for wave C of (X).  I suspect that wave (X) may extend into a double zigzag to make things more complicated.  If that happens we will see a high in early September, a wave B or X of (X) low in early October and then another rally to complete wave (X) into early December.  The exact pattern cannot be known without more information, but the point is not to get drawn into potentially false rallies until there is more certainty.

If the Qs make it into the 55 to 56 zone (at a minimum above the recent swing high), I will be looking for shorting opportunities.

Swing longs at this point may feel like a good bet, but probably aren't.  Even so, I tried to catch the breakout in HANS today, but did not get filled.  Somehow intraday, it jumped over my stop limit price.  I am not going to go after it now or on a pullback - it's just too risky.  That's the way it goes sometimes.

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