Thursday, August 25, 2011

Summation Index Points To Higher Prices

The MACD of the NYSE Summation Index does a pretty good job of confirming new uptrends.  The MACD has now turned positive as of today.  The signal is usually a little late, and in late 2008 and mid 2010 there was a lower low after the first signal.  Even so, it is more likely than not that higher prices will be seen near term.  The sell signals tend to be too late to be useful.

As a side note IBD has called the market in an uptrend as of the close on 8/23.  Not all follow-throughs work, and there are very few leading stocks setting up to launch new uptrends, so this follow-through should probably be taken with some skepticism,  i.e. be prepared to exit any new longs quickly.

AAPL closed off of its low today after the Jobs news.  I suspect we can gauge the market's trend by another sell signal in AAPL.  It looks like AAPL is working on a b wave triangle in an abc rally that may approach the previous high around 400 to form a double top.

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