Monday, August 22, 2011

IWM Has The Clearest Structure

The IWM seems to have the clearest wave structure for the major indexes.  It shows positive divergences in momentum and volume developing as it moves down in a 5th wave from the July high to complete a very deep ABC correction, or more likely the first leg or a more complex correction.  While a move down to 60 is not out of the question, a retest of last week's low on lighter volume would be expected.

I am continually amazed at how the markets repeat structures and cycles on multiple time frames.  The current decline is matching the decline in form from the October 2007 high almost swing for swing.  I just don't expect the continuation of the action from 2008 to follow.  Then, we have the swings from last year.  The IWM formed a bottom on 7/6 last year, but a high on 7/7 this year.  It is now headed down to a low that may turn on the same date as last year - 8/24.

If the current correction continues to follow the form from 2007, then we can expect a high around the middle of September and another low around the first of October.  From there a two month or longer rally should ensue.

I wouldn't get too aggressive on the long side with the first follow-through day that comes.  Wait for the second one.

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