Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Wave C Continues?

The outcome from here is uncertain. We could see a divergence in the patterns between the Dow, SP-500 and the QQQQ. For example, the Dow & SP-500 could form a flat correction while the QQQQ stays in the triangle. In any case, I will be looking to exit hedge positions when the 5 period RSI is > 90 which may happen by Friday afternoon.

Gold and silver appear to also be in countertrend rallies that could last a few days.

IBD called the market in confirmed rally again after yesterday's rally, but made a very interesting point in the "The Big Picture" - the IBD method is not intended for index investing. This seems to be confirmed by the number of whipsaws in the IBD calls this year. As followed in the System Tracker, using IBD as an index trend following system has significantly underperformed other methods. They emphasize that there are really no leaders to buy at the present time regardless of the confirmed rally call.

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