Thursday, October 30, 2008

Resistance Ahead

Volume continued to decline today as this rally progresses suggesting we may see a pullback tomorrow before further upside. Resistance at the 2004, 2005 and 2006 lows is not far away. The IWM was stopped at the 2004 lows today. The Dow is well below the 2004 low of 9708 and will have resistance at 10000, the 2005 low, should that level be breached. Resistance for the Qs is at 34.45 and 35.54.

My cycles analysis indicates that this rally could hold up until the end of next week, but I continue to expect a selloff after the election.

I will not be looking to be seriously long until we get a positive macd divergence into the expected cycle low date around the end of November, or until a breakout above the high of the low month on volume. The latter does not seem to be at all likely in the coming month, but anything could happen.

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