Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Don't Put On Your Bull Hats Just Yet

Today's rally had enough breadth to put the potential for wave c of an upward flat correction to the top of the list. However, the triangle possibility is still on the table. If the flat correction is correct, then we may see a move toward the 50dema, which should be a great selling opportunity. Given the typical upward bias for the end of October, it would not be surprising to see this rally hold up until election day and perhaps a little longer.

I appreciate the comments. Keep them coming. As a side note, I agree that Robert Prechter's history is tarnished. I believe that he let his desire to be right, and perhaps be the hero, get in the way of seeing what the market was actually doing. Nevertheless, I harbored a strong suspicion over the last few years that by time people had given up on him, he would end being "right" after all. The most important point is the elliott wave theory and practice to me is only a guideline and a way to assess how hard to press the trend and when to let up while using basic technical analysis to follow the trend.

2 comments:

dave said...

Glad to see that you addressed "If the flat correction is correct, then we may see a move toward the 50dema." One of the reasons why i think/thought a "flat" is/was less likely is that it would require a crossing of the 20dema.

The downside had so much momentum in Oct DJI & NDX never touched the 20dema during the congestion period. SPX never even came close; but that's due to the energy & financials in SPX. With all the Fed & Treasury manipulations, as a bear i was always looking over my shoulder (especially after the horribly choppy July; Aug; Sept) at the 20dema.

Bottom line > 20dema is our trigger for a "flat" DJI & SPX. And that the near "misses" of the 20dema counted as the real thing.

At any rate, the QQQQ's should NOT form a "flat" even if DJI & SPX do. Q's are forming a more bearish running correction. Do you agree about the prosepcts of QQQQ's & a "flat" ??

Regards,
dave

dave said...

We all saw the bearish Descending Triangle in the QQQQ's; but as it developed or rather didn't develop isn't it much more likely a bullish Falling Wedge with the lower support line showing a loss of downside momentum ?

Regards,
dave