The SP500 failed to reach (my) expected upside target zone before rolling over. It's possible that a 5 wave decline can be counted for the SP500 from the July high if wave 5 down completes as an impulse, standard or ending diagonal. However, it is also possible that the current action could be wave B of (X) in an expanded flat correction. This is likely a lower probability, but one we should keep an eye out for.
Regardless, the action this week has set the market up for at least a short term short trade on any rally next week. Targets should be conservative as some markets are developing a positive divergence that could lead to a buy signal very soon. I am still looking for another tradable bottom by the end of next week or early the following week, so no intermediate term short trades.
This is one of the most difficult and frustrating trading environments in years. It is tempting to abandon one's strategies and methods in order to adapt to the increased volatility and frequent reversals, but that is how the market conditions you to not hold for larger profits once a solid trend actually does materialize, so don't change proven methods - just be patient.
Friday, September 23, 2011
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