Saturday, September 24, 2011

Dow Reaches Lower Channel Line

The Dow has reached the lower parallel channel for the entire rally from the March 2009 low.  The channel lines were created using the Andrew's "pitchfork" method with the November 2008 low as the origin and the January 2009 high and March 2009 low for the base.  It is easy to see how well the Dow has followed the channel lines over the last two and half years.  There is every reason to believe that some sort of intermediate term low is imminent near term based on this chart.  A rally to the median line somewhere around 12,000 by late this year or early next year is the most likely next move.  

I expect that after that rally the currently developing low will be retested by mid 2012.  If that test is successful, another leg up in the stock market should follow.  At the risk of sounding repetitious this process will last several more months.  Be prepared for difficult choppy conditions and use more conservative trading targets.

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