Thursday, August 11, 2011

Watching The McClellan Oscillator

We got that Dow close above 11000 today and the March low at 11555 is the next target.  The SP500 touched but closed below equivalent resistance at 1173. The Qs touched but closed below the March and June lows.  The Qs will have to break through 54 and the SP500 through 1173 for this rally to continue.  However, the Dow's successful close will probably lead the way.

Expecting a pullback in the upward retracement tomorrow, but the rally should continue onward until the McClellan Oscillator makes it back above the zero line, which could take 3 to 5 more days.  A turn down from above the line would mark another selling opportunity.

One sure sign that we have not reached a longer lasting bottom in spite of the short term bearishness among options traders is that investment advisors have remained stubbornly bullishness during this decline.  The last two crashes were followed by strong rallies, 2008 and 2010, so now they may have developed a false sense of confidence that the current mini-crash will resolve itself quickly.  This is not a good sign and will have to be rectified before a new uptrend can begin in earnest.

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