Friday, August 12, 2011

Pause Day

The market paused today after a wild week, which is to be expected, while the McClellan Oscillator has yet to make it back above the zero line.  I don't think the rally will be over until that happens.  Given the depth of the decline a choppy rally may last until the end of August.  If so, I would be very cautious going into September as the first days of September tend to be a time for selling in this type of market environment.

While stocks have taken a beating, the GDX has held up well and finished the week with a weekly MACD buy signal.  The recent parabolic move in gold appears to be providing support.  However, caution is advised as any rally in the GDX is likely to fade if stocks take another beating this fall.

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