Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Surprise Surprise

Well I must admit I was trading for the bounce this morning as the SP500 moved into the zone of the June low and below the long term trendline and 200ma, but there was no bounce.  The longer term pattern is now in question as the SP500 closed decisively below the trendline and the 200ema.  However, there is significant support only a few points lower at the April and November 2010 highs and the 400ema.  It is unlikely that those levels will be substantially violated on the first attempt.

However, today's decline occurred with the NYMO reaching a severely oversold level, so a bounce back to retest the trendline and 200ema should be forthcoming in a probable 4th wave that lasts 2 to 5 days before continuation down to the cited support.  Only if the broken trendline is regained almost immediately could we believe that this might be a bear trap.

Traders should keep in mind that until we see a completed 5 wave structure down from the 5/2 high, it is more likely that the current action is part of an [X] wave as opposed to a resumption of the bear market.  At the moment we are still a long way from that outcome.

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