Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Enough Already!

It looks like the SP500 futures have completed 5 waves down from yesterday's pre-market high against a rising McClellan Oscillator on positive divergences on the hourly MACD suggesting a near term low may be at hand.  The futures and cash indexes have declined into the zone of the June low, which also suggests the market may be close to a near term low.  A bounce from current levels, though short lived, may be the next move.  However, continued testing of the lower levels of the trading range in August would argue for a downside breakout in the fall.  A move back toward the recent highs soon should reduce that possibilty.

At this point the triangle pattern going on since February remains the top view with a possible continuation of the sideways action into September as wave (E) extends or we retest the June low making the current decline wave (C).

Trading the short term swings seems to be traders' only alternative until this thing resolves itself one way or the other.

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