Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Is The Market About To Crash?

A lot of traders seem to think so, but crashes typically don't happen so close to a top.  The crash in the fall of 2008 occurred almost a year after the top in 2007.  The intense selling in late 2000 occurred almost 6 months after the top earlier that year.  Yes, we did have a mini-crash last year, but that was fully retraced and the market made new highs.  The correction could continue for some time and fall further, but most corrections last 2 months or less, and we are approaching that length now.

The willingness of traders to jump on the crash scenario bandwagon so quickly leads me to believe that it is a false alarm.  One major difference between the current situation and the prior two is that a majority of commentators in the media was advising investors to buy the dips in the summers of 2000 and 2008.  We don't have that plurality of bullish advisors now.  Putting the two factors together it is difficult to see how the bear market is reasserting itself now.  Perhaps toward the end of the year the story will be different.

No comments: