Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Heading For A Retest Of The March Low

Clearly the reversal today means yesterday's rally was not a 5 wave impulse even if it did appear so.  It now seems likely that a retest of the March low is underway and any rally will probably be fleeting until that happens. The pattern is probably a flat correction from the February high - the triangle pattern is history.  We will have to assess the subsequent rally to see what the prospects are for this fall (as in autumn).

Oil is breaking down out of a b wave triangle with a target below 90.  If wave c = wave a the target would be 77.49.  I don't think it will go that low as there is support in the 82 to 87 zone.  A break of the May low at 94.63 will confirm the breakdown.

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