Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Correction Likely Underway

While one day doesn't make a trend, I think there is every reason to believe that today's reversal marks the beginning of at least a short term correction, and probably an intermediate term correction in wave C down.  Besides the outside reversal day (yes it closed one tick above yesterday's low, but it is close enough), the Qs reversed almost right at 1.0x5DOR (5 day opening range) above the high of the 5DOR.  The common targets above and below the 5DOR for the month are 0.618, 1.0 and 1.618 times the 5DOR.  We also have a completed ending diagonal triangle and the high/low logic index sell signal.

AAPL closed solidly below its median line and failed to touch 350 during regular hours.  We also have a number of other stocks sold on earnings, IBM being the exception.  All in all, the evidence is stacked in favor of a correction.  We will have to see what the correction brings in its first leg down to determine its possible extent.

I will be looking for opportunities to short the Qs and select stocks in wave C down.  As discussed in previous posts, barring a wholesale market breakdown, I will not be shorting after this leg down as it should be the last shorting opportunity for some time if my big picture view is correct.

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