Thursday, January 20, 2011

Completed Impulse In The Qs

We now have a completed impulse wave down in the Qs of minute or smaller degree.  A countertrend rally lasting several hours and possibly into tomorrow is expected next, but given that we are dealing with a retracement of ending diagonal triangles at two degrees of trend the countertrend rallies may be shorter than usual.  We should also expect the unexpected, i.e. gaps down and downside extensions.  The Qs have moved under the upper trendline of the ending diagonal from the November low and a retracement back to the that level is likely.

Commodities are rolling over.  Silver, in particular, is breaking down sharply.  As long as silver remains below yesterday's high (28.77 in the SLV) it should continue to accelerate to the downside.

There will certainly be buyers stepping in at the usual support levels.  We will be looking for those support levels to fail as the Qs head toward at least 45+/- over the coming weeks.  A sustained move below 55.07, the 2007 high, in the Qs would confirm a pivot reversal.  So that is the next area to watch.

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