Saturday, December 18, 2010

Update On AMGN

It has been over a year since I've mentioned AMGN, and it has continued to progress steadily in a very boring B wave triangle.  Presently, wave [d] of B is in progress and should continue for a few more weeks before wave [e] begins to complete wave B.  There is a slight chance that the December low completed wave [e], but I doubt that's the case.  After the completion of wave B, there should be a sharp upthrust in wave C of (D) which should last 6 to 9 months.

Given the very long nature of the primary wave [B] triangle, it may be prudent to exit long positions at the end of wave (D) and wait for a new entry point at the low of wave (E) which should bring AMGN back down to current levels.  However, there is no guarantee of that and wave (E) could just hang out high for a few months before it breaks out.  So, pick your poison. 

BIIB is slightly ahead of AMGN in the overall pattern, and it is disappointing that neither company is paying a dividend for the privilege of owning their stock during this huge consolidation, but I am personally accumulating shares in both as I think at least one will eventually have a huge runup similar to the 1990s.  I don't know what the catalyst will be for the runup, but the pattern says it should come.  When it does I will be counting 5 waves on the monthly chart to find the exit point.

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