Thursday, February 25, 2010

What A Day!

The bearish case hasn't been nullified yet, but it is close. All we can allow for now is that the current up move is wave [c] of an expanded flat correction, but it must remain below the 2/19 high. If it penetrates the 2/19 high, the next move will be back to the January high.

Another blow to the bears is that the recent correction has allowed a number of leading stocks to set up very nice bases, and we are also seeing some nice breakouts during the correction. All of this really does make it hard to justify a powerful (C) wave decline. The setup for wave (C) down was there, and it should have gotten some traction this week. It didn't, so we have to seriously consider the alternatives.

The primary alternates are either a flat correction with wave (B) retesting the January high followed by wave (C) retesting the February low, or a large triangle, or finally that the correction is over entirely.

The fact is that if the 2/19 high is exceeded it will most likely be bullish overall. In that case I will be looking to exit remaining short positions and going long. If we do not see some selling tomorrow I will probably make discretionary exits of short positions that aren't working anyway. The first day of March tends to be a bullish day and the short side just isn't working.

At this point, I believe that any outcome other than a strong down day tomorrow is a sign to move to the long side. We had a brief opportunity for some short trades, but that time is probably over even if the correction continues, and shorting will be a losing proposition.

GME matched its November 2008 closing low of 17.50 today, and I exited the short position for a gain of 32.7%. FWLT moved nicely in my direction early, but then came back with a vengeance after 10am. By the time I got back from a business meeting, half the gains had evaporated. Given the action in the broader market, I took my gains.

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