Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Seeking Resolution

The action today did little to clarify whether we are indeed in wave (C) down. So far, the pattern from the 2/19 high could be counted in multiple ways and we could see another wave (B) rally high before wave (C) turns down in earnest, but coming under yesterday's low on increasing volume would resolve the uncertainty.

It is at points like this that traders can lose alot of money. While I might believe that we should see wave (C) down, the market doesn't have to do what I believe, and if we get a solid follow-through day from this level it would have to be respected, which might mean exiting some short positions prematurely and going long. Even if I got whipsawed 3 times in a row, I would take the next trade, because you never know when the market is going to run big in your favor.

Oil is close to completing a 5 wave impulse from the 2/5 low. This would give us a solid pivot for getting out of the trade because if oil comes under 69.50, the low of the impulse, the rally must have been wave C of an expanded flat and we could expect oil to move much lower. However, my expectation is that 69.50 will hold.

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