Thursday, July 9, 2009

"Dow Higher On Positive AA News" - Huh?

Yes, this headline can across the screen during my late lunch hour this afternoon when the Dow was barely holding the flatline and Alcoa had been selling off all day from its early morning high. To add to the absurdity of the statement, only this morning the talking heads were saying how little influence AA has on the Dow since its price is low and the Dow is a price-weighted index. Later in the day, the comment was made that the Dow is now meaningless.

I don't think so. The Dow may become meaningless sometime day but only when it is much, much lower than it is now. That said, some very bearish looking charts have developed in some, not all mind you, but some of the most expensive names in the Dow 30, e.g. CVX, XOM, BA, WMT and VZ. When these break down in earnest, we will know the fall selling season is upon us.

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