As soon as I finished the last post stating that the chart pattern in CVX looks pretty bearish, I see a news flash that CVX is warning of sharply lower refining margins.
The charts often do tell the whole story even when we don't know why.
3 comments:
dave
said...
Craig,
What's the rule of thumb for how many days when something no longer counts as a false breakout or trap ? IOW, at present, DJI/SPX are on their 3rd day below the H&S necklines.
I have seen & heard (i.e., Katie Stockton, MKM Partner's technical analyst on Bloomberg) quite a few bears looking for a rally/bounce near-term. While i can easily see the reasons for such, IMO, it's very dangerous to play the near term against the short & intermediate term.
IF (BIG caps) we don't rally, it's in these type oversold conditions where “crashes" come from oversold conditions.
I don't know that I would put a time limit on it. You might be able to relate it to a percentage of the time of pattern formation, but I have not seen any good research on that.
In my opinion, the breakout is valid until the market rallies back above the neckline, pulls back to form a proper pivot, and then breaks out above that pivot or breaks out above the most recent buy pivot.
3 comments:
Craig,
What's the rule of thumb for how many days when something no longer counts as a false breakout or trap ? IOW, at present, DJI/SPX are on their 3rd day below the H&S necklines.
Thanks,
dave
I have seen & heard (i.e., Katie Stockton, MKM Partner's technical analyst on Bloomberg) quite a few bears looking for a rally/bounce near-term. While i can easily see the reasons for such, IMO, it's very dangerous to play the near term against the short & intermediate term.
IF (BIG caps) we don't rally, it's in these type oversold conditions where “crashes" come from oversold conditions.
Regards,
dave
Dave,
I don't know that I would put a time limit on it. You might be able to relate it to a percentage of the time of pattern formation, but I have not seen any good research on that.
In my opinion, the breakout is valid until the market rallies back above the neckline, pulls back to form a proper pivot, and then breaks out above that pivot or breaks out above the most recent buy pivot.
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