Thursday, March 8, 2012

One Way Or The Other

The NYSE McClellan Oscillator hit an oversold level on Tuesday.  There appears to be two cases following when this occurs.  In the first case, the oversold level marks the end of the pullback/correction, which is what happened in March of 2011.  In the second case, which is the more common outcome, the market continues lower after a bounce, and the McClellan Oscillator makes a higher low as occurred in May of 2011.  One clue as to which way it's going to go is the MACD of the NYMO.  If it remains below zero, then we probably have Case II.  If it moves back above zero, then we probably have case I.  We should know fairly soon.

The futures this morning seem to be screaming Case I, as in we should see new highs soon, but it's too early to tell.

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