Saturday, March 17, 2012

In The Same Place

Little has changed since the last post.  It looks very much like the market is in the later stages of its current rally, as the McClellan Oscillator remains below zero, and the Summation index continues to fall.  The equity only put call ratio has quickly moved back into overbought territory, which is another concern.  As we watch the likes of AAPL go parabolic, it can be hard to sit idly by, but I still believe that is the best course for now. A correction of 4 or more weeks is what we are waiting for now in order to have a low risk entry point.

At the same time the IWM looks like it wants to breakout, but if it does don't expect much follow-through since it is lagging.  A quick 2% to 4% pop may be all that can be expected.

Oil looks like it is ready to move higher again after testing support.  I am looking to go long the OIL with a target of around 30.

As a side note, I realize there are a lot of things on this blog that need to be updated including the layout and a number of links, but this is perhaps one of the busiest times in my life that I can remember with lots of changes going on - marriages, graduations, anniversaries, new jobs, and much more, so unfortunately, a much needed overall will have to wait until perhaps later this year.  Thanks for your patience and support.

I do appreciate the positive feedback that I get from time to time.  As much as I want to be able to offer some valuable insights, one benefit in writing this blog for me is that it keeps me grounded, and forces me to re-examine my perspectives before I take a position.  This has saved me more than a few times.  One perspective that has recently come to light is the view of the 2011 correction as an expanded flat, which I first proposed last year.  I now see that a number of other market analysts have adopted the same view.  The only problem is they are still seeing things through a bearish lens, and that is just not the place to be right now.

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