Wednesday, February 29, 2012

VIX Pointing Toward Correction

Perhaps today's high completed the rally from the December low, or perhaps the market needs another push higher.  Either way exhaustion seems to be setting in.  IBD continues to note that leading stocks haven't really participated on the up days recently.  

The VIX is showing a positive divergence with a higher low against the SP500's higher high.  This alone is a strong indication that the long awaited correction is near at hand.  A move back to the 1300 to 1340 level +/- would be the expected outcome.  I think we will know before the end of the week if it has come to pass.

One problem that I see is that there are few stocks to short unless you want to try to pick tops.  My recent stab at AAPL was a failure, as such top picking efforts usually are.  However, there a few possibilities.  AMZN is one of them.  It was down 7.6% in February versus a gain of 6.4% for the Qs, and it is on the verge of breaking a 3rd trendline.  The head and shoulders top formation gives a target of around $130.

As long as the October highs hold as support in the indexes, this correction will be another buying opportunity.

No comments: