Thursday, January 26, 2012

Pullback Imminent

The SP500 has stalled at the median line for the rally for the second time since the rally began in November.  Short-term momentum is rolling over with short-term sentiment at extreme bullish readings.  It seems a pullback is likely, but there is support at the October high and at the lower trendline.  

I suspect the pullback will terminate in this area.  By the rule of alternation this may turn out to be a triangle or a flat correction lasting about two weeks.  There are some stocks setting up for short trades.  The easiest way to find them is to look for stocks that have not participated in the rally forming lower highs along with missing earnings and/or lowered guidance.  A good example is UA which is down 16% from its high, and missed earnings expectations today, and lowered guidance.  Any short trades would be hit and run at the present time.

Another rally should follow the current pullback with the SP500 tagging the median line or exceeding it with a target between 1340 and 1360.

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