Wednesday, January 11, 2012

Contrarian Of Contrarians

Some measures of sentiment are beginning to move toward optimistic extremes, but the overall evidence points to bearish to neutral sentiment at present.  While some analysts and advisors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, most in the media seem to be focusing on less favorable outcomes, and the elliott wave crowd are convinced that a second wave is near completion.

As shown below, even if optimism reaches an extreme, it doesn't mean a coincident top will occur.  Oftentimes,  tops take weeks to form afterward.

However, the point that is being missed is that the Qs are less than 3% away from an 11 year high, which is bullish - not bearish, and the SP500 only needs to close above 1303 to put money managers back in the black for 2011.  If we see a close above the level, it is quite likely that a quick move to 1340+ will follow.  The Dollar appears ready to break down from a rising wedge, which would probably support a continuation of the rally.

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