Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Very Oversold

As measured by the McClellan Oscillator the market is extremely oversold.  A very sharp countertrend rally could begin anytime and probably will by Friday or Monday.  The elliott wave crowd is counting this as (i) (ii) i.  The problem with this view is that it could just as easily be (a) (b) (c).  We cannot know until there is a rally followed by failure.  

At this point a weak rally is shortable, but I wouldn't count on it being an intermediate term trade.  More likely it will be a retest of the August/October lows at best, and maybe only a retest of today's low.  My hunch is that the current decline is wave B of (X), which will be followed by wave C of (X) up to above the October highs.  Thereafter, a long choppy ABC decline should follow, or a long drawn out wave (Y) triangle lasting several months.

1 comment:

HousewifeMaggi said...

Your blog really states your view very clearly. After the retracement, it seems like 50% of traders all say very bearish, and may test Oct low.