Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Uptrend Confirmed By Today's Action

IBD would not call today's rally a follow-through day, but there's enough other evidence to believe that it is a valid signal to be long this market.  First, the %Stocks Above The 50ma rose sharply above 60%.  This is a strong sign of an uptrend.  At this point, the signal would only be invalidated if it were to fall below 40%.

Secondly, the VIX confirmed a buy signal today be closing below 30, previous support during August and September, and its 50ma with a MACDH sell signal.  These facts confirm the trend in the VIX is down, which will support a continuing rally.

That said, the market is short term overbought, and a pullback would be preferred before entering new long positions.

The rally should continue up to around 1370 on the SP500 before it runs out of steam.  Afterward, wave (Y) down lasting 3 to 5 months should follow.  Wave (Y) of [X] will bring more of the same frustrations:  lack of follow-through in either direction, failed breakouts in either direction, choppy action, violent reversals, and a continuing range-bound market.  Wave (W) did not sufficiently subdue the overall optimistic sentiment that existed in early 2011.  That will be the job of wave (Y).  Once complete, after a correction that will end up lasting perhaps a year in duration from May 2011, people will be sick of this market.  At that point a multi-month to two year rally will likely begin with another chance to reap big rewards on the long side before another major decline lasting into 2016 begins.

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