Monday, November 21, 2011

Line In The Sand

It is amazing how quickly things can go from bad to worse.  Just last week the Qs were holding up above the median line for the rally.  Now they are at the lower channel line.  The general rule for median lines is that if the market fails to achieve the upper channel line, and then fails at the median line, a full retest of the lower channel line is to be expected.  That is what we are seeing here.  

The current level at today's low is in the zone of the January (counting 12/31/10), March and June lows.  If this level fails, then a full retest of the August/October lows is to be expected.  If there is any symmetry to the above pattern, we may see a rally from the current level to make another lower high before the failure occurs.  However, it would not be prudent to count on it.  Unless there is a concerted effort on the part of the bulls to end this rout now, it looks like it is downhill from here for the rest of the year.  A weak rally will setup shorting opportunities.  A powerful rally will put the long side back in play.  There is no reason to be long this market at the present time.