Sunday, October 23, 2011

Pullback May Not Be Complete

The most notable feature of the market's action this week was that the Qs did not make a new high for the recent rally while the SP500 did.  This negative divergence suggests that the pullback is not yet complete.  I propose that the Qs completed wave b of the pullback or nearly so on Friday.  Wave c down should begin sometime early this week.

It follows that the SP500 and other similar markets are probably trading out an expanded flat or running triangle pattern.  The main point is that, barring a breakdown, the pullback should be complete by the end of this week with a target at the 50ma.

The equity only put call ratio shows that sentiment has not yet reached an extreme and the rally has further to go.  If history is any guide, the rally should continue into early December.

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