Thursday, September 22, 2011

Watching For Double Bottoms

With many markets expected to fall 2% to 3% today, traders should be on the lookout for double bottoms.  For example, the IWM is only 2.83 points away from its August 9 low.  While the Transports are only 1.7% above the August lows.  At the least we would expect a bounce from these levels.  Momentum indicators such as the MACD will also be setting up positive divergences on the retest of the August lows.

We knew a pullback in the Qs was very likely.  A 3 wave affair would be the most probable outcome, so a near term low may not be far away followed by a rally into mid next week and then another decline into early October to setup a better intermediate term long opportunity is what I'm thinking at the moment.  There's no proof that such an outcome will occur, but the governing analog right now appears to be late February 2008, which if correct means we are only days away from an important low.

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