Sunday, September 4, 2011

Bearish Setup

Friday's low close below resistance in the Qs sets the stage for lower prices next week.  The Qs reversed to close below the June low at 53.28 and also below the 2007 high of 55.07 after hitting resistance at the 50ma. Movement below Friday's low would be a valid short signal.  However, the daily MACD is still positive and there is also Bollinger band support.  Tuesday's after a Monday holiday and a low close on the prior Friday are down days 71% of the time.

All of that said, I think shorting with a close target would be a more prudent approach.  The market is coming off of severely oversold levels and the current decline may simply wave B of a 3 wave rally.  I would not be looking for a retest of the August low, although any retest would definitely be a buying opportunity on reversal.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend!!

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