Monday, September 12, 2011

Alternate To A 5th Wave

While so many are counting the 5th wave down, now with a [i] [ii] i ii setup, I want to suggest as I have earlier that something less bearish and a lot messier is probably going on.  I continue to believe that the current structure is likely an (X) wave of wave [X].  Either wave X of (X) of [X] bottomed today or wave X will extend into the latter part of September or early October.  This would be followed by a more exaggerated wave Y up to complete wave (X) up, or possibly only the first leg of wave X up.

The reason I think this is the more likely course is because of the momentum study that I presented in my previous post.  The current momentum profile doesn't really fit with a 5th wave down.

It is certainly possible the market is in a 5th wave down, and if so, we will know soon enough.  Either way, it is probably a little early to be getting long.  We need to see more advance followed by a pullback or a retest of today's low.  This may take a few more days.  In either case, a buying opportunity will become available soon, but an impulsive structure off of today's low would be encouraging for an earlier entry.

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