Thursday, August 18, 2011

Still Just A Pullback

Index futures are sharply lower this morning, but this does not change the expectation that a retest of the 50ma will be seen before new lows are seen.  Even if the August 9 low were to be retested, it would be probably be a a double bottom of some sort.  However, the most likely outcome is a 50% to 62% retracement of the recent rally followed by another leg up.

One interesting fact that is truly amazing is the complacency among investment advisors who have remained stubbornly bullish throughout this selloff.  This certainly tells us which side of the tape we should be looking to trade come the end of August.

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