Friday, July 29, 2011

Selling Exhaustion

The SP500 has touched the 200sma this morning with a low of 1282.86 just below the cited target range for a low and has now reversed higher as the TRIN has been falling since the open.  In spite of all of the negative news this morning the TRIN opened much lower than at yesterday's open, which suggests that the selling may have reached a short term exhaustion point.

I exited swing short trades in individual stocks and the TWM this morning in anticipation of a 2 to 5 day rally. This morning's low may be the low of wave (E) of the triangle or wave (E) may extend in time, but so far this morning's action does not support the idea that a crash is imminent.  Now, if we see repeated tests of the lows throughout August going into September, then perhaps the view would change, but for the time being the outlook is for a resumption of the intermediate uptrend after the wave (E) low is established.

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