Thursday, July 28, 2011

Renewed VIX Sell Signal

The VIX has triggered a renewed sell signal based on yesterday's breakout above the July 18 high.  Despite the large rally off of the June low there was no intervening buy signal, which would seem to confirm that the rally was a fake based mostly on extreme short term bearish sentiment and short covering.  At this point it could take 4 weeks or more to get a valid buy signal based on the conservative method used on the chart.  In general this method has worked fairly well in confirming intermediate trends, but not so well over the last few months with extremely choppy market conditions.

IBD has called the "Market In Correction" on its Big Picture column as of yesterday's close.  Regardless of the extent of downside follow-through it could take several weeks to setup a new intermediate term rally due to the amount of distribution that has occurred in the last 4 weeks irrespective of any pattern that might be developing.

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