Saturday, July 2, 2011

IBD Cries Uncle

IBD has changed its outlook to "Uptrend Resumes".  I have been a reader of IBD since 1998 and in all of that time I don't think I recall a previous instance when an uptrend was called without a valid follow-through day.  The argument here is that the market has moved sufficiently off the low to confirm a new uptrend.  That's fine, I suppose, but it is a deviation from their usual approach.

The IWM has moved sharply this past week along with the rest of the market.  Clearly, volume has declined which is not a small concern, but OBV has made a new high, which is bullish.  I suspect we will see some sort of pullback beginning next week back to the moving averages and the January high to correct this advance.  As long as the pullback doesn't exceed 62% of the advance I will be looking to get fully long from that point with the expectation of a market rally into the end of the year, perhaps a choppy rally, but to new rally highs nonetheless.

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