The SP500 reached the 62% retracement of the 6/13 to 7/7 rally this morning while the NYMO has reached an oversold level. A bounce is due, but the pattern of the decline looks incomplete.
It seems that we are retracing the steps from last year in a slightly different form. Below I show a count of the swings of the NYMO from last year and what I think will play out this year (this is not an elliott wave count). After a surge off the low to an extreme high indicating a possible uptrend initiation the NYMO has declined to an oversold condition. Now I expect we will see another updown swing in conjunction with a bounce and a sharper decline in the market before a final low is seen. The final low should be wave e of the triangle for the SP500. The count for the Nasdaq is different. The entire process could take 2 to 4 weeks.