Tuesday, July 26, 2011

August Not Kind To Traders

The month of August has a history of not being so kind to traders.  Either it's very dull or marks the tops of pullbacks, corrections and even crashes.  Following is a list of tops for the last 7 years:

August 4, 2010 - Began retest of July low leading to a
                                    significant bottom
August 7, 2009 - Marked beginning of a pullback
August 11, 2008 - The top for the crash of 2008
August 8, 2007 - Swing high before the final leg down
                                    from the July 2007 correction
August 4, 2006 - Marked beginning of a pullback
August 3, 2005 - Beginning of a significant correction
August 2, 2004 - Beginning of the final leg down of
                                    the 2004 correction

Given that the August 2nd deadline for a debt deal looms ahead and the market has been rising into or toward that date it would seem likely that it will become a sell on the news event for better or worse.  Also, the market has continued to turn very closely with the lunar cycle since I last mentioned it, bottoming only one day after the full moon in June and topping 3 trading days after the new moon in early July.  The pullback low in July occurred 1 trading day after the full moon, and the next new moon falls on Saturday July 30.

Barring a breakdown below the June low it seems that we are headed for a mid-August low after the August 2nd deadline, which will be followed by another substantial rally.

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