Thursday, June 2, 2011

Waiting On The Big Number

The SP500 undercut it's May 25 low today as the Dow did yesterday, but a number of indexes failed to do so creating a bullish non-confirmation of the breakdown.  The Qs, IWM, SOX, and the London FTSE index failed to break below their respective May 25 lows.

There were other bullish tells today.  The SP500 almost touched the April 18 swing low close and also the February 24 swing low close indicating continuing support at that level.  Another very significant non-confirmation occurred as the June SP futures failed to undercut the May 25 low as well.  Also, today's low undercut and then closed above the 50% retracement of wave [b].

Altogether, the weight of the evidence suggests that we will see a rally tomorrow barring a devastating payrolls number.  The rally should be wave [d] of the ongoing triangle which will probably top around the June 1 high, or just above, by mid-June.  Afterward, wave [e] should complete the correction into late June or early July.  Wave [e] may come very close to the wave [c] low, which would go a long way toward cementing bearish sentiment in support of the upcoming rally.

If the overall correction does complete as a triangle, the question arises as to how long the following rally will last.  If the triangle completes in early July, the triangle will be 4 1/2 months long.  The usual rule of thumb is that the following rally lasts about 1/3 the length of the triangle for 4th waves, or about 1 1/2 months in this case, putting the end of the rally in mid-August.  The extent of the rally in this case would be equal to the height of wave [b], or 121.53 points, putting the target around 1435+/-.

There's another possibility and that is the triangle is an (X) wave separating two halves of a double zigzag upward correction in wave x.  In this case, the rally will last far longer and go far higher than most suspect at the moment.  If the rally goes on for more than two months and exceeds the 1435 target substantially, we would begin to lean toward that point of view.

Everything depends on the outcome tomorrow, and the overnight futures holding up before the payrolls report.

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