Tuesday, April 12, 2011

SP500 Approaching Oversold Condition

The ratio adjusted McClellan Oscillator has quickly moved back down into the zone associated with market bottoms even though the SP500 is only 25 points off the recent high and 65 points above the March low.  That is not to say that it can't go lower or trade in a range for an extended period of time, but the evidence is beginning to build that this wave [ii] pullback is nearing its conclusion.

The 5 period RSI is now also oversold and it has done a good job at marking short term lows.  To confirm a low it needs to turn back above the 30 level.

It was interesting to see how oil and stocks sold off together today which easily dispels the myth that rising oil is a drag on stocks and vice versa.  Oil has risen from its 2009 low almost in lock step with stocks.  If stocks are going to head higher, then oil probably will as well, at least for the time being.  There will be a point where the two diverge, but I don't think we are there yet.

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