Monday, April 11, 2011

Outside Reversal Day In Crude

Crude got hammered today and closed with an outside reversal day.  Was it because of positive changes in Libya?  I don't know, but I'm not ready to say that oil has completed its rally yet.  It is beginning to look like an ending diagonal is forming.  If so, there should be another push higher, possibly with an overthrow of the upper trendline to complete the rally.  Support is at the lower trendline around 108 and the March high around 107.  As long as these levels hold we should see another move higher.

The SP500 closed at 1324.46 today just below the low of the high week from February.  The 12 period lower Bollinger band is now around 1311.  We may see a move lower toward that level but as long as the market closes toward 1320 the intermediate trend should be higher.  The McClellan Oscillator is already getting oversold so the pullback may be nearing its conclusion.

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