Monday, April 18, 2011

Looking For A Rally

I think the main take-away from today's action in the SP500 was the deep penetration of the strong support zone with a close above it.  The close could have been stronger, but the Qs closed at the top of the range.  While there may be some "backing and filling" this week, the market should be setup to rally in wave (i) or (b) as long as today's low holds.  Ideally it should hold above 1300.40 with a small rally to complete 5 waves up from today's low.

In addition, there is now a developing positive divergence in the NYSE McClellan Oscillator.

I really like the fact that the bearish talk has been steadily increasing over the past week.  I've even seen some (i) (ii) i ii counts.  I also really like the hammer in the Qs today.  It may take a little more time, but overall there is a lot of reason to believe that the rally will get underway soon.  It is possible that primary wave 2 topped in February, but the tenor of the market correction so far does not fit that conclusion.

No comments: