Holding Pattern

It seems the anxiety du jour is Ben Bernanke's speech on Wednesday.  Does anyone really believe that he is going to go off the reservation with some unexpected announcement?  Maybe he will, but more likely he will stay the course because he believes in what he is doing.  This is one area that sentiment is hard to read.  On the one hand advisors are excessively bullish, but on the other hand there are lots of negative stories like this one to counterbalance the bullish sentiment.  When you add it all up it seems like the equity only put call ratio has it right with a neutral reading.

If the market reacts negatively, it will likely just be a shakeout that will quickly be retraced.  Consider the action in oil two weeks ago and where it is today.  A variety of time projections do not show a top until at least mid-May if not late June, so I see no reason to get off this train, particularly since I just got on it with the MACD buy signal.

Silver was the talk of the day with many speculating that a top may have been seen.  Don't count on it.  The previous tops in silver were double tops.  It may be different this time, but I suspect it won't.

The grains appear to be in a final leg up.  The DBA may benefit but a top will be seen in May or June.

SOHU had a nice pop today.  It may be in a 3rd wave in an ending diagonal.  In any case I don't think it is done yet.

Let's see if we can get through this week without any serious damage.  If so, the first week of May should be a nice one.  The first day of May is frequently a great day.