Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Mixed Signals

The market put in a nice up day today after the IBD "Market In Correction" call, which is why it is good to wait for additional follow-through.  However, the advance was on lighter volume for most indexes.  Oil remains solidly above $100 while the Dollar advanced, both of which are headwinds for the stock markets.

The High Low Logic index gave a false sell signal in January and has now issued a buy signal as of February 23rd.

The VIX on the other hand remains above its 50dsma with a positive MACD suggesting that the balance is still tilted toward more correction ahead.

What the above are telling me is that the overall uptrend remains intact but the correction probably has further to go.  The developing triangle probably has alot of traders looking for the obvious upside breakout, but the more likely outcome is a breakdown in a small degree c wave.  This breakdown may only last 2 to 5 days based on the initial decline.  If the VIX closes below its 50dsma, then the correction will probably be over.

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