Monday, March 21, 2011

Light Volume Spoils The Rally

Markets rallied today but on below average volume.  Overall the rally from the March 16 low has the appearance and feel of a countertrend rally, i.e. a rally within the context of a larger correction.  The SP500 negated the likelihood of a 5 wave decline today which raises the probability that were are in wave [x] of a double zigzag.  There are no real limits on [x], but usually would expect no more than a 62% retracement of wave [w].  For the Qs that would be around 57 and for the SP500 it would be around 1308.


I expect the 50dema will be tested next for the Qs.  Afterward expect another zz decline to the 200dema +/-.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Wayne Watley noted a bullish 3 day thrust signal yesterday (FWIW). I guess I'll stay slightly long and see what happens.

Aristotle

Trader Craig said...

Definitely a 3 day thrust, and SP500 is back above its 50dema, but internally the rally does not look impulsive. We may be looking at an extended consolidation in a triangle or double zz. Just be ready for some whipsaws.