Friday, March 25, 2011

A Few Possibilities

I see four realistic possible outcomes for the current market action.  The first is that we are close to completing wave [x] of a double zigzag correction which will retest the March low in April to be followed by wave 5 or wave [iii] up to new highs.

The second is that we are currently in wave [i] or (i) up already to be followed shortly by wave [ii] or (ii) down and then wave [iii] of 5 or wave (iii) of [iii] up to new highs.

The third is that we are in wave [b] of a 4th wave triangle to be followed by wave 5 up to new highs.

The last is that we are in wave [b] up of an expanded flat correction in wave 4 or wave [ii] to be followed by wave 5 or wave [iii] up.

I think this week's market action is sufficient to rule out the more bearish views.  The one thing that all of these have in common is that we will see either a sharp decline or a pullback within the next week or two, and there is only a small chance that the market will fall significantly below the March low to complete the correction.  Also, in 3 of the 4 cases we can expect a move toward the highs if not a retest of the highs by mid-April.

In my opinion the weight of the evidence is on the side of the bulls.  While short term traders can consider short positions, the best outcome will likely be in taking profits in short positions at reasonable targets as opposed to a developing trend trade.  A number of stocks are beginning to build the right side of their bases and going long early may be a good strategy.

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