Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Another Corrective Rally (Updated)

Update - The PPO of the equity only put/call ratio has yet to reach the level that would be associated with a lasting bottom.  We should continue to look for further deterioration in this indicator over the coming days.

Earlier Post
The rally in the Qs today appears to be another 3 wave rally.  If this is the beginning of primary wave 3 down, then tomorrow or the next day should be a doozy (is that a word?).  Anyway the more likely interpretation is that this morning's low completed wave [w] of a double zigzag correction, and we are now in wave [x] up which may last another day or two.  This would place the real end to the correction sometime in mid-April.  The next best interpretation is that we are still in wave [c] down which should complete by the end of the week.  If the market thrusts higher tomorrow, the correction is probably over, but I don't think that will be the case.

The McClellan Oscillator has reached oversold territory.  Now we will be looking for a rising bottoms pattern  as denoted by the 1s & 2s to indicate that the correction has run out of steam.

The % stocks above the 40ma is beginning to reach the oversold zone, but has further to go.

On a severe down day, Rubicon attempts to break out of a double bottom pattern.  It may need a couple of more tries, but this stock is showing relative strength.

Although gold and oil sold off today as well, these are probably pullbacks in the overall uptrend.  It is too early to conclude that the uptrends in these commodities are over.


Anonymous said...

I just recently found your blog. I've read some older posts, you've had some great calls! 2 questions,
what does PPO stand for and how does one find the details on the methods in the tracker spreadsheet?


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the comments.

The PPO can be found in most charting packages and is the Price Percent Oscillator. It is basically a normalized MACD, but it is more useful in comparing current oscillator levels with past levels. For the CPCE I am comparing the difference between a 50ma and a 5ma. This helps smooth out the spikes in the put call ratio.

The original details of the tracker spreadsheet are in much older posts. My plan is to add the rules above the results in the spreadsheets as soon as I can.

Please share my blog with others if you get the chance, and feel free to ask questions at any time.