Thursday, February 3, 2011

Squeeze Setting Up In The Qs

The last long squeeze fired off on 1/6/11 when the Bollinger bands moved back outside of the Keltner channels. DI+ was greater than DI- confirming the uptrend.  The rally lasted 9 days before a pullback began.  Now the Bollinger bands are once again moving back inside of the Keltner channels.  While anything is possible, it is not typical to see a breakout when the upper Bollinger band is contracting toward the price moving average.  Also, although there may be additional upside the contracting Bollinger bands tends to keep a lid on a market advance until the contraction is over and the bands begin to expand again.

In the present case, we have DI- trying to cross up DI+ which would indicate the likelihood that a squeeze breakout would be to the downside.  Since it may take a few days for the setup to develop, if the market is in the process of topping, next week may continue the top building process in preparation for a more decisive breakdown.

I have to admit, however, that just looking at price alone the chart looks pretty bullish.

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