QQQQ Median Lines

The Qs are trading above the long term median line formed by the 2010 summer correction.  The lower channel of the intermediate term median line formed by the August 2010 decline intersects the long term median line near the end of March.  As long as the Qs remain above median line support from point 1 to 3 the correction will be muted.  However, a break of the lower intermediate term channel line around point 3 would likely lead to a drop to the lower long term channel line at point 4.  Typically a break of the long term median line would be followed by a retest from the underside allowing for a shorting opportunity.  We are a long ways from seeing that potential outcome at the moment.

If long term median line support holds, then a move to the long term upper channel line becomes highly probable.  This line projects to around 64.00 by the end of April, a possible advance of around 12% from current levels.  If long term median line support fails, then a move from point 4 back toward the median line would be expected before a larger correction unfolds.